IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Houston Baptist
Southland
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.8	#312
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	79.8	#14
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.8	#256

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.0	#334

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.5%	13.2%	4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	15.3	15.8

.500 or above	15.9%	47.6%	14.9%
.500 or above in Conference	39.6%	64.9%	38.8%
Conference Champion	2.1%	7.5%	2.0%
Last Place in Conference	12.8%	3.3%	13.1%

First Four	2.8%	3.5%	2.8%
First Round	3.0%	10.8%	2.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 3.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.1	0.0 - 1.1
Quad 1b	0.0 - 1.1	0.0 - 2.2
Quad 2	0.1 - 2.2	0.2 - 4.5
Quad 3	1.2 - 5.1	1.3 - 9.5
Quad 4	8.1 - 8.0	9.4 - 17.6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2018	66	@ Arizona	L	71-88	3%
Nov 10, 2018	267	Fordham	L	72-75	51%
Nov 17, 2018	22	@ Wisconsin	L	62-84	1%
Nov 23, 2018	115	@ Wake Forest	L	75-87	9%
Nov 26, 2018	158	Texas San Antonio	L	79-88	29%
Dec 01, 2018	141	@ Louisiana Tech	L	73-84	12%
Dec 08, 2018	203	@ Texas St.	L	68-74	21%
Dec 17, 2018	322	@ Samford	W	85-84	43%
Dec 19, 2018	23	@ Miami (FL)	L	67-89	2%
Jan 02, 2019	227	Lamar	L	75-80	43%
Jan 05, 2019	292	@ New Orleans	L	74-76	35%
Jan 12, 2019	263	@ Nicholls St.	L	82-85	30%
Jan 16, 2019	230	@ Abilene Christian	L	76-81	25%
Jan 19, 2019	258	Sam Houston St.	L	74-77	49%
Jan 23, 2019	236	SE Louisiana	L	74-78	46%
Jan 26, 2019	304	@ McNeese St.	L	81-82	38%
Jan 30, 2019	330	@ Incarnate Word	W	82-79	50%
Feb 02, 2019	309	TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	75-76	60%
Feb 06, 2019	105	Stephen F. Austin	L	74-87	21%
Feb 13, 2019	303	@ Central Arkansas	L	84-85	37%
Feb 16, 2019	263	Nicholls St.	L	82-85	49%
Feb 20, 2019	328	Northwestern St.	W	78-76	67%
Feb 23, 2019	258	@ Sam Houston St.	L	74-77	30%
Feb 27, 2019	227	@ Lamar	L	75-80	26%
Mar 02, 2019	304	McNeese St.	L	81-82	58%
Mar 06, 2019	330	Incarnate Word	W	82-79	68%
Mar 09, 2019	309	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	75-76	40%
Projected Record						9.4 - 17.6	7.7 - 10.3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.1		2.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.0	2.1	1.3	0.6	0.1				5.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	1.6	2.2	1.4	0.3	0.1					6.0	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	1.8	3.1	1.5	0.3	0.0						7.0	4th
5th									0.1	1.7	3.5	2.3	0.2	0.0							7.8	5th
6th								0.0	1.4	3.8	2.1	0.5	0.0								7.8	6th
7th							0.0	0.8	4.1	3.4	0.6	0.0									9.0	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	3.4	4.2	0.9	0.1	0.0									9.1	8th
9th					0.0	0.5	3.1	4.6	1.5	0.1											9.8	9th
10th				0.0	0.4	2.3	4.5	2.2	0.2	0.0											9.7	10th
11th			0.0	0.4	2.4	3.8	2.0	0.3	0.0												9.0	11th
12th		0.1	0.7	2.4	3.6	2.1	0.4	0.0													9.4	12th
13th	0.3	1.4	2.2	2.4	1.4	0.1	0.0														7.8	13th

Total	0.3	1.4	2.9	5.2	7.8	8.9	10.7	11.5	11.6	10.2	8.5	7.7	4.9	4.2	2.2	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.1			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	71.2%	0.3		0.3	0.1	0.0
15-3	49.0%	0.6		0.3	0.3	0.0
14-4	24.1%	0.5		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	8.5%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.7%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.1%	2.1		1.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		61.0%	61.0%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
17-1	0.2%		88.4%	88.4%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
16-2	0.5%		39.1%	39.1%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3
15-3	1.3%		40.7%	40.7%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8
14-4	2.2%		24.3%	24.3%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.6
13-5	4.2%		19.3%	19.3%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.6	3.4
12-6	4.9%		13.4%	13.4%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.6	4.3
11-7	7.7%		8.3%	8.3%		16.0																0.0	0.6	7.0
10-8	8.5%		5.8%	5.8%		16.0																0.0	0.5	8.0
9-9	10.2%		2.5%	2.5%		16.0																	0.3	9.9
8-10	11.6%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	11.4
7-11	11.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
6-12	10.7%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.7
5-13	8.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.9
4-14	7.8%																							7.8
3-15	5.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	5.2
2-16	2.9%																							2.9
1-17	1.4%																							1.4
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		4.5%	4.5%	0.0%	15.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.6	3.7	95.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%